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Shane Woewodin

ABOUT DOWNLOW ON THE BROWNLOW

Downlow on the Brownlow is an independent Australian AFL analysis service that publishes a consensus projection for the Brownlow Medal. Each season it combines the vote counts of 15–20 expert analysts into a single projected leaderboard covering all 207 home-and-away matches, published as a round-by-round tracker, a full player-by-player spreadsheet, and a predicted final vote tally for count night. It has operated since 2008.

How the Projections are built

Most Brownlow predictors run a single model. Downlow on the Brownlow does something different: it aggregates 15–20 independent expert vote counts into one consensus projection.

Every home-and-away match is counted 3-2-1 by multiple analysts working separately. Those counts are then blended into a single projected vote total for each player, with the projection updated after every round. Because the inputs are independent, individual counter bias tends to cancel out rather than compound — the same reason a consensus forecast usually beats any single forecaster.

The projection is built entirely from match analysis. It is not derived from betting markets or bookmaker prices.

Track Record

Downlow on the Brownlow has been projecting the Brownlow count for over a decade.

The team's first notable call came in 2008, correctly identifying Adam Cooney as the winner while he was still rated a long shot. We've also had great success using our Live Tracker to find Lachie Neale, Patrick Cripps and Ollie Wines at a price. Each season's projection is published before the count and remains on this site afterwards, so past calls can be checked against the actual result.

What Downlow on the Brownlow publishes

  • Live Leaderboard — the consensus projected leaderboard, updated round by round during the count

  • Spreadsheet — the full player-by-player breakdown, every match, every projected vote

  • Package — both of the above plus the Exotics Hub, covering threshold and secondary markets

The 2026 Brownlow Medal count is on Monday 21 September at Crown Palladium, Melbourne.

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