Best Value - Team Markets
- downlowonthebrownlow
- Oct 8, 2020
- 3 min read
With the likes of Petracca, Fyfe, Rowell and Merrett being crunched in for most team votes we look at where to find some value in these markets and see if we can pluck one at longer odds.
North Melbourne - Jed Anderson $2.50
Other than yellow boots what’s the best way to attract umpires attention and nab a few Brownlow votes? A shocking haircut. Jed Anderson is no exception with his putrid top knot. We are hoping this helps him over the line against an unassuming Higgins/Simpkin and Goldstein polling unders due to the ruckman curse. Jed has 3 very good games with potential to be BOG in rounds 12 and 18, while being in their best two players in their Round 9 win against the Crows. Across these games he averages 29 touches 7 clearances and 7 tackles. With North only winning 3 games this year votes will be hard to come by and we think Jed has just done enough.
Richmond - Trent Cotchin $3.25
Dusty clearly wins Richmond’s count this year so we are looking to see who polls the second most votes. Shai Bolton is favourite and when on can be one of the most damaging players in the game. Unfortunately, he has a tendency to drift in and out of games and is not a massive accumulator of the pill - can’t tell you how many same game multis he blew by missing 15 touches! We have Cotchin with a potential to poll in 5 games this year whilst Shai could only poll in 3. Cotchin was huge in Richmond's Round 12 and 14 wins while Dusty was a bit off, while in Bolton's big games he'll be fighting for votes with Dusty which won't end well for him. With Shai’s inconsistency and being an unproven poller we are prepared to back Cotchin in here at better value.
West Coast – Andrew Gaff $4
Nic Nat has had a career best year but as mentioned earlier the ruckman curse is real, and may be even worse for Nic Nat as a low possession ruckman. The likes of Gawn, Goldstein and Grundy who have dominated the competition in recent year always underwhelm us on Brownlow night. We have to look back 1992 when the last true ruckman won a Brownlow. Even Luke Darcy went in as unbackable favourite in 2002 yet fell 9 votes behind Simon Black.
Nic Nat's career best year came in 2012 when he polled 10 votes, where he produced a career-high for disposals, marks and goals per game. For one reason or another umpires just don’t appreciate the glorious finesse of a tap ruckman so we are ruling Nic Nat out for this reason.
Tim Kelly will have a couple of BOG’s but outside of that has had a fairly disappointing year and not able to replicate his form at Geelong.
Last year's leading vote getter for the Eagles Elliott Yeo was out injured a fair chunk of the year, so by process of elimination this leaves us with Andrew Gaff. After the round 10 bye Gaff comes home with a wet sail. In the last 8 games we have him polling 6-10 votes. Gaff is a proven vote getter polling and average of 15.2 votes in the last 5 years. Let’s hope the umpires continue to sit in the changeroom after the game, open the AFL app and pick whoever has the most possessions.
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