Brownlow 2024 - Best Bet, Value Bet and Lay
- downlowonthebrownlow
- Sep 17, 2024
- 2 min read
Updated: Sep 23, 2024
Based on the data from our comprehensive Downlow on the Brownlow spreadsheet, here's some insights into a few of the Brownlow markets on offer.
Best Bet
Jeremy Cameron – Top 20 @ $2 (Bet365)
Across all 18 of our counts, Jeremy Cameron features in the top-20 in 89% of them, where we have him marked as a $1.07 proposition to do so this year.
Cameron has one of the best standard deviations across our counts emphasising consistency across all counts, with our average projection being 16.8.
According to our averages, 15 votes should be enough to secure top-20 status despite last year being 17 votes and the 2022 count you only needed 13. Either way, think Jezza should be fine – he did finish equal-8th in 2022.
Lay
Hugh McCluggage – Top 20 @ $1.50 (Sportsbet)
Absolute lunacy to see McCluggage at this price for Top-20 – do not get sucked in throwing McCluggage top-20 in your multis come Brownlow Night.
We have McCluggage marked at $5.70 to finish top-20, with only 16.7% of our counts featuring the Brisbane Lion there.
McCluggage only polled three votes last year polling in one game, and although his numbers are better this year he will continue to compete for minor votes with Zorko, Dunkley, Daniher, a much-improved Rayner and Ashcroft’s second-half of the season.
Value Bet
Zak Butters – Top 5 @ $14 (Sportsbet)
We have Butters marked at $4.30 to finish top-five, finishing there in 22.2% of our counts.
Simplistically, Port won one less game than 2023 where Butters polled 27 votes in equal-third. Horne-Francis has improved, but he still did poll 16 votes last year – Rozee on the other hand has had a wild decline, with the Port skipper polling 21 votes last year.
As for Butters, his numbers are freakishly similar – a decline in inside-50s (who cares), but an increase in clearances which could only help his cause.
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