By The Numbers - contenders that have historically polled above expectation

The Downlow on the Brownlow team has looked back in the archives to 2019 to work through the projected votes against the actual votes for the main contenders of 2025's Brownlow. Here are the top-five pollers above expectation over the last six seasons.

#5 - Jordan Dawson

Not going to lie, this is surprising. Since 2019 we have Dawson projected to poll 49 votes and he’s performing 8.2% above average with 53 votes.

In his three years with the Crows, Dawson outperformed the Downlow’s projected votes in 2022 and 2024, while in 2023 we only had him marginally ahead of where he landed with a projected tally of 20.76, with the Adelaide Skipper landing on 20.

#4 - Bailey Smith

Blonde mullet flowing through the breeze clearly catches the eye of the umpires.

This is somewhat misleading though as we only have had Smith projected for 25.6 votes across his career and he’s polled a total of 29 votes - but a 13.5% swing nonetheless predominantly driven by his 2020 and 2021 seasons.

#3 - Tom Green

Polled incredibly well in 2024 with 27 votes – well above our projection of 21.2, which has Green polling 16% above expectation since entering the league in 2020.

The Giant also outperformed his projection of 14.4 votes in 2023 with 16 – does bugger all in the coaches votes but umpires love him.

The big inside midfielder bull for the Giants can poll come Brownlow Night.

#2 - Patrick Cripps

Certainly not a contender in 2025 but it's probably worth sticking Patrick Cripps in your top-20 bets. The Blues' Skipper's record is insane - hence the two Brownlows.

Cripps has been projected 116.1 votes since 2019, and he's polled a whopping 137 votes - 18% above average.

#1 - Matt Rowell

Might be time to invest on the Gold Coast Sun while he's still around the $26 mark. Rowell polled off his head in 2024 with 25 votes, despite being projected to poll just 17.

Across his career since entering the league in 2020, Rowell has been projected to poll 40.9 votes - well he's polled 22.4% above this figure, polling 50 votes.

Stole plenty of votes from Anderson last year, who was projected to poll 21.4 votes and finished on 14 - could lightning strike twice for the grass-eating ranga?