JACK TO STEELE CHARLIE

He may be the fourth line of betting at $9 across most bookmakers, but the Downlow on the Brownlow team has St Kilda’s Jack Steele taking home Charlie in a few weeks time.

Can Jack Steele the 2021 Brownlow?

Historically, it adds up – you require two consecutive years of work to be awarded the Brownlow Medalist.

Since 2009, 11 of the last 13 Brownlow Medalists have finished top-six the year prior in votes per game – the only two being Trent Cotchin in 2012 (did he even win but?) and Matt Priddis in 2014 when he won as a $17 shot upstaging Joel Selwood and Gary Ablett.

Here’s the list of the top-six in votes per game last season (min of 5 games played):

At the start of the year we put a pen through four of these contenders:

- No one 32 or older has ever won the Brownlow – this means no Pendlebury and Boak

- The last player to win back-to-back Brownlows was Robert Harvey in 1998, so the odds were against Lachie Neale

- Gavin Wanganeen was the last player to win the Brownlow aged 20 or younger, meaning Matt Rowell would need to break a 28-year-drought

As we now know these four won’t be taking home Charlie in 2021, but Jack Steele and Christian Petracca are both genuine chances.

What’s in Steele’s advantage - Who the hell is taking votes off him?

Steele will compete with the likes of Luke Dunstan, Brad Crouch and Zak Jones – none of them will be polling double-digits. Petracca on the other hand will be splitting votes with third favourite Clayton Oliver, and don’t forget about Max.

On averages, we have Jack Steele on top with 30.66 votes, finishing top 4 in all 18 counts we’ve accumulated. He’s less than three votes ahead of the three favourites in Ollie Wines, Clayton Oliver and Marcus Bontempelli, meaning we have one hell of a vote count on our hands which will likely come down to Steele’s 36 touches in their Round 23 win against the Dockers.

The Ultimate Downlow on the Brownlow Package has plenty of insights for every market available, so there’s plenty of ways to make money from purchasing the package – but make sure you’ve got a few bob on Jack Steele who we predict to be the longest winner of the award since Matt Priddis in 2014.