Past Winners' Profile - Chas' 2025 Prediction
- Chas
- 7 days ago
- 3 min read
This will be the biggest upset since Priddis in 2014 - yes, the Downlow on the Brownlow team provide you with game by game analysis across 19 different counts, but I'm the Data Scientist that has not watched a single game of football this year.
Quite simply, I find key indicators that correlates to Brownlow form and then apply that profile to the contenders for 2025.
These key indicators are:
25+ Disposals Per Game: 19 of the last 20 winners have done this.
Ranked in the Top 11 for Contested Possessions Per Game: The last 17 winners have done this.
Kicked 10+ Goals across the season: 19 of the last 20 winners have done this.
Finished Top 20 the year prior: 14 of the last 16 winners have done this.
Of the last 16 winners, 13 have ticked all four boxes. The other three have ticked three of the four boxes - so we can put a pen through anyone that ticks less than three boxes, which includes two huge names!
So, process of elimination breaks down our Top 15 contenders.
Ticks One Box
Max Gawn ($151)
Ruckman don't win Brownlow Medals - simple.
Finn Callaghan ($151)
New kid on the block that missed a month of football - pass.
Bailey Smith ($5)
Wow wow wow. The last player to tick the box in one of the key indicators and win the Brownlow was Adam Goodes in 2006. Don't bother preparing a speech Bailey.
Ticks Two Boxes
Isaac Heeney ($251)
$251 for a reason.
Max Holmes ($151)
Doesn't win contested ball and polling history isn't there.
Hugh McCluggage ($67)
Never been a great poller - will be better this year but can't win.
Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera ($51)
Only took Ross 18 weeks to get this bloke in the middle. Might have cost him a Brownlow.
Jordan Dawson ($7)
Now this is interesting. Similar to Bailey Smith, will need to defy recent history with Adam Goodes the last player to win the Brownlow in 2006 averaging less than 25 disposals per game.
Ticks Three Boxes
Zak Butters ($151)
It's not impossible to win the Brownlow ticking the box on three key indicators from four, but it's not easy. Only three of the last 16 winners have done it - and Zak is $151 for a reason due to his inability to hit the scoreboard.
Marcus Bontempelli ($101)
Not playing the first 5 weeks will hurt the Bont's chances, but even more surprising is that he's ranked 23rd for contested possessions per game this year.
Caleb Serong ($51)
If he could kick a snag or two he'd be a genuine show, with other key indicators elite.
Matt Rowell ($13)
He could be one that can win it despite ticking just three of the four boxes - reason being, he was only one goal short from going four from four - in the mix.
Noah Anderson ($7)
The name above stole all his votes which saw Anderson finish equal 26th, despite being projected a top-10 finisher. In terms of the season statistical metrics though, he ticks all the boxes there.
Nick Daicos ($2.50)
Nick ticks three of the four boxes, but the one box he doesn't tick is a genuine concern for the short-priced favourite. The Pie is ranked 34th in the AFL for contested possessions per game - the last player to win it being ranked that lowly is Adam Goodes' first Brownlow in 2003!
Ticks Every Box - Chas' Brownlow Tip
Tom Green ($51)
I don't recall the last time someone at this price won the Brownlow Medal - but Tom Green is the only player in the AFL this season that ticks every box. Ranked one in the competition for contested possessions per game and top-five for disposals. Polled like a mad-man last year, and in 2025 kicked a career-high 13 goals.
As mentioned earlier - my tips are purely done on statistical profile and not game by game analysis, but I recommend analysing both for the best outcome.
Cheers, Chas
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