THE BONT’S BROWNLOW BREAKDOWN

You can get $11 for Marcus Bontempelli with Ladbrokes to win this year’s Brownlow, and the data suggests he’s well and truly in the hunt this year. There’s just one underlying factor that will make and break the Bulldogs star’s chances.

We’ve looked at the data across Marcus Bontempelli’s career, and across that time he’s only ever polled twice in 48 losses. This clearly doesn’t bode well, with the Dogs currently with 10 losses to their name already. But he has polled 61 votes from his 51 wins across his career so far.

- When Bont has had 26 disposals with no goals in wins across his career, this has translated to receiving an average of 1.86 Brownlow votes. - When he’s had 25 disposals and at least one goal in wins across his career, this translates to receiving an average of 2.21 Brownlow votes.

- He’s had 30 disposals 9 times across his career, and polled in 8 of those games, receiving 2.5 Brownlow votes per game in those wins. The Bulldogs won in all 8 of those games – and lost the only game he didn’t poll in.

Based on Bont’s numbers in wins this year, we have him at 16.63 votes from wins alone. Big question will be – can he poll in losses? He’s had four 30+ disposal games in 2019 – all were in losses. Even though across his career he averages 2.22 Brownlow votes when he gets 30 touches, it’s so heavily weighted towards wins.

We believe from those four losses with 30 possessions, he’ll poll in two of them which could potentially tally 5 votes. This would bring him to 21.63 votes with three rounds left; not necessarily in front, but you’d think another 3-vote performance against Essendon on the weekend would see him crunched in from double digits to second or third favourite. Bontempelli has never polled against Essendon across his entire career – is he due, or are the Bombers his bogey team?

Click here for the Downlow of the Brownlow Ultimate Betting Package.