The Numbers Behind the Winners

What’s the magic formula to polling Brownlow night? We’ve known for decades that it’s a midfielder’s award, but what do we know statistically that catches the umpires’ eye?

Two words – contested possessions.

Although we’ve made the assumption that goalkicking midfielders in the mould of Fyfe, Dusty and Dangerfield are the ones that take home the top honour, over a decade we’ve seen those players that are averaging the most contested possessions are generally the ones that take home Charlie.

The stats don’t lie – of the last 15 players to poll the most votes on Brownlow night, all of them have been ranked in the top ten for average contested possessions per game (minimum of 15 games played for the season) – 12 of them finishing inside the top-5.

If we look at the top-ten leaderboard of last year’s Brownlow, here are how the players ranked for contested possessions per game over the season. Although we see a few outliers including Jeremy Cameron as a forward, there’s no coincidence that the top-four pollers were also top-four for contested ball.

Bloody hell can Nick Daicos do something we haven't seen in 15 years?

So what does that mean as we look at the odds for the 2023 Brownlow after Round 14? Brownlow favourite Nick Daicos will well and truly need to buck the trend, along with second favourite Zak Butters who sits outside the top-20. If the trend of the last 15 years is to continue, it’s the next group of three with Taranto, Petracca and Bontempelli where this year’s winner will emerge, while value still lies with Clayton Oliver if he can get back on the park and former winner Lachie Neale.

Of those not listed in the top-10 according to bookmakers for this year’s award, but do sit inside the top-10 for contested possessions (min. 10 games), we find plenty of value – a definite watch of their team’s can make an end of season run.

History suggests we’re going to witness an extremely interesting Brownlow night, especially if Nick Daicos holds on to his favourtism status leading into the count.