VALUE - TOP 5, 10 & 20
- downlowonthebrownlow
- Sep 14, 2021
- 2 min read
It's hard to find good value for this year's Brownlow, but the Downlow team has found two players from each of these markets that's worth a dabble.
TOP 5
Sam Walsh $2.25
The Downlow team has Walsh in 5th place off the back of a breakout year, paying $2.50. Walsh slightly pips Christian Petracca and Tom Mitchell on averages, and from the 18 counts (including overall average) the Blue finishes top-five in half of them.
We’re getting above evens for this, so certainly worth a play.
Tom Mitchell $3.50
Wins a truckload of footy – tick. Former Brownlow Medalist – tick. Posted numbers similar to his Brownlow year – tick. The fantasy pig just polls – he had 25 in 2017 and 28 in 2018, and averaging 34 touches this season with not much opposition Mitchell is a Brownlow smokie.
We have him finishing 7th on averages, but 39% of the 18 counts do have him finishing top 5. Not bad at $3.50.
TOP 10
Zach Merrett $2.25
You can just about lock away nine of the top-10 based on the data – so who is sneaking into tenth? According to the bookies it’s Jack Macrae, according to us it’s Zach Merrett.
The Bomber slightly has the edge on Boak and Macrae according to averages coming home with a wet sail. Of the 18 counts (including averages), 39% has him finishing top-10.
Travis Boak $2.75
Then there’s proven poller Travis Boak. On averages we have Boak just 0.14 votes behind Merrett, but according to the 18 counts 44% have the Power star finishing top 10 – above both Merrett and Macrae that feature in 39% of top-10s.
Should finish the season with two 3-vote performances to give the top-10 a shake at good odds.
TOP 20
Dayne Zorko $2.25
Great value for a Zorko top-20 finish. Off the back of winning his fifth club B&F, the Brisbane mid-forward should have a solid Brownlow night, even challenging Jarryd Lyons for most votes for the Lions.
On averages we have Zorko finishing 19th, but 72% of our vote counts do have Zorko finishing in the top-20.
Tim Taranto $4.00
Great value here for the Giants bull Tim Taranto. On averages it should be McCluggage finishing in 20th place, but only 44% of counts have him top-20 making the $1.95 on offer less than appealing.
Taranto is ranked 22nd on averages with 13.5 votes and features in the top-20 in 22% of vote counts making the $4 overs here. There’s always a few from that top-20 that simply do not poll to plan – will Taranto be the beneficiary of this claiming a top-20 finish?
Comments