If Polling History Shaped the 2026 Brownlow Medal
We say it every year - there are players that poll off their brain, there are others that simply don't. We knew Matt Rowell would poll last year, we called it when he was $26. Then there's the likes of Brodie Grundy, Tristan Xerri, and surprisingly Ed Richards who just continually poll unders.
It doesn't take into account if other players were better on the day - it simply looks at that player's stats, and when they've produced those stats before, how did they poll. Last year, this method produced the Daicos / Rowell quinella.
We've gone through the polling history for a key group of players this year to see how they've historically polled when they've produced specific games that they've produced in 2026. This is how it looks.
Rank | Player | Team | Proj. Votes |
1 | Nick Daicos | Coll | 41.24 |
2 | Max Gawn | Mel | 30.57 |
3 | Marcus Bontempelli | WB | 26.77 |
4 | Bailey Smith | Gee | 25.69 |
5 | Patrick Cripps | Carl | 24.74 |
6 | Chad Warner | Syd | 23.23 |
7 | Isaac Heeney | Syd | 21.94 |
8 | Jai Newcombe | Haw | 21.61 |
9 | Lachie Neale | BL | 21.39 |
10 | Jordan Dawson | Ade | 20.2 |
11 | Shai Bolton | Fre | 19.91 |
12 | Sam Walsh | Carl | 17.91 |
13 | Will Ashcroft | BL | 16.84 |
14 | Luke Davies-Uniacke | NM | 16.64 |
15 | Zak Butters | PA | 15.75 |
What to take out of this?
Max Gawn
He's had a career-best year, coming off a career-high votes in 2025. Not fighting for votes off Petracca, while Pickett is still unproven as a poller.
Top 3 paying $26.
Chad Warner
Last year he was paying $15 to poll the most votes for Sydney last year -which he did. $10 to finish top-20 - he did that easy! $7.75 to poll 15+ votes - he finished on 21 votes.
Incredible poller - had 23 votes in 2024, with numbers fairly similar to that year.
Shai Bolton
$13 for most Fremantle team votes - sure I'll partake.
When Bolton has 26+ disposals in wins across his career, he's averaged 2 votes per game. He did that seven times this year.
There are always upsets - not just with the winner. Andrew Brayshaw finished top-five which was paying a fortune, with top-10 paying $8. Tim Taranto polled 20 votes in an ordinary season for Richmond - 15+ was $3.50. Even Luke Davies-Uniacke was $4.10 just to poll 10+ votes last year.
Consider these outliers from a different data strategy when it comes to the Brownlow.
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